The Arab Spring Thread

Again, a organisation which could easily work for some other foreign interests.

@duke_qa:

Its a revolt against a corrupt and power-mongering system, by young, frustrated, moderate and educated people.

Same was in Eastern Europe. Oops.

When people claim that someone can flawlessly puppeteer such a rebellion, they are going beyond rational explanations and into conspiracies. And conspiracies of that scope are nothing more than irrational secular superstitions.

You could in theory say that these rebellions are partially caused by the rise in food and fuel costs, which probably are caused by the recession, which was caused by the American bank Lehman Brothers bankruptcy back in 08. So if you can find proof that the Lehman Brothers are earning billions on this revolution: wooo.... conspiracy

First of all, with all honesty, these are what we Romanians call "lovilutions", which means a coup with popular support. Think a bit, for 30 years nothing happened, and out of a sudden "democracy is coming! YAY!" thing. Its just too sudden. It doesn't make sense. Its economic, military interest for the regions.

I'm going to be frank with you: I come from a former Warsaw Pact country, and believe me, here NO ONE believes that there was a revolution(maybe people who are too far away from the major cities, or too poor, etc.) and seriously, an average Romanian will tell you that all that fall of the bloc wasn't a 100% democratic thing, the regimes could've lasted a lot more. But the USSR couldn't support these countries economically. That's why they left them to the West.

Right now it seems that the US is weak(just like the Gorbachov period) and it seems that they will leave this countries to the Russians(Iran-like interest. Think of Islamic republics, which will be under Russian influence).

Yeah, and since we have some bad discipline on these political forums about being off topic and not being good enough to fork a derailed discussion off to a new thread, I'm suggesting that you do so now so that this thread can continue its coverage of the Egypt uprising

but first to sum this little derailmend up, Ganon has a naive attitude to global politics which are very pro-american. I'm all for a certain American presence around the world myself as it is in my and the western worlds best interest 95% of the time. BUT you have to be clear that there is corruption and self-interests involved in pretty much any sort of global politics, and there is no such thing as free lunch.


Now back to Egypt. Nothing big been happening, One might suspect that the government have ordered loyalists to play bad demonstrators and give them excuses to use force against them, Saudi-Arabia's king has voiced support to the president, which is no surprise as I suspect SA is a pit of medieval rule that would be forced to do some unpopular reforms if Egypt fell. It has also been said that 70 people have been killed today, which is an apparent increase. more buildings are on fire and the "spy"-minister has been upgraded to vise-president, so Mubarak's son is out of the grooming-for-presidency race.

Yeah, I'll split it off later.

On the topic of Egypt:
The outcome is pretty much in the military's hands now (as it is most of the time). They have a lot of national and regional interests to balance and depending on what they choose, the result can be anywhere from backing the protesters like in Tunisia to a violent crackdown under Mubarak or their own leadership. Mubarak has a strong military background so his control over the armed forces should not be underestimated. On the other hand, they have close strategic and financial ties to the US, whose threat of keeping back the $1.5 billion in case of a crackdown is certainly a big factor. Of course it also depends on who exactly in the armed forces exercises the real power. We'll just have to wait and see how they react in the next days.

Interesting article from Al Jazeera's "senior analyst" Marwan Bishara:

As Egypt continues to unravel under the pressure of a popular uprising against the Hosni Mubarak government, we look at the role of its military as the guardian of sovereignty and national security.

Where is Egypt heading after days of revolt?

Clearly the way forward is not the way back. But since President Mubarak has opted for more the same old and bankrupt ways of dealing with national uprising, making promises of change and cosmetic alteration to governance essentially, all now depends on the momentum of the popular uprising and the role of the military.

Mubarak's attempts to delegitimise the popular revolt as isolated incidents exploited by Islamists has fallen on deaf ears at home and abroad. As the revolt continues to expand and gain momentum in major Egyptian cities and protestors demand no less than the removal of his regime, it's now the military's choice to allow for the change to be peaceful or violent.

So far, it has opted for merely policing the streets without confronting the demonstrators, whether this will turn into a Tiananmen scenario of tough crackdown or not, will be decided in the next few hours or days.

But Egypt is not China, and it could hardly afford such national confrontation.

But what else can the military do?

The Egyptian military could follow the Tunisian military by refusing orders to shoot at demonstrators or impose the curfew.

The military can replace Mubarak with a temporary emergency governing council or leave it for civilian opposition groups to form government in consultation with the military.

This depends on the cost and benefits of keeping Mubarak who's long been the military man at the helm of the regime. Appointing intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as his vice president, and hence ending his son's chances for succession, will make little difference on the long term.

There is direct correlation between continued momentum of the uprising and the need to remove Mubarak, his family and his political leadership from the helm. Also, the military will make its calculation on the basis of delicate balancing act that insures its own influence and privileges while not allowing the country to descend into chaos.

And as the ultimate guaranteur of the national security, the Egyptian military must also take regional and international factors in consideration, notably the United States.

Will the Chief of Staff of the Egyptian military play a new role for the United States?

The Obama administration has probably put the Egyptian military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Anan, on notice before he left the US capital on Friday, and explained what it can, could not or would not stand for in terms of the military's response to the revolt.

Washington has been a major backer of the Egyptian military over the last three decades, supplying the country with around $2bn in annual aid mostly for military purposes. When the uprising broke out, Anan was in Washington as part of their annual strategising sessions.

Clearly caught by surprise, the US has been a mere spectator over the last several weeks, as people took to the streets in Tunisia or Egypt.

The Obama administration continued its predecessor's policy of nurturing contacts and consultation with various Egyptian opposition groups in addition to the military.

It understands all too well that the response of the Egyptian military will have far reaching influence, not only on the situation in Egypt, but also on other countries in the region, no less on its future relationship with Israel.

For the military to be the guardian of the state's sovereignty and stalbility, it must be the protector of Egypt's future politics, not its permamnent leader.

Source: http://english.aljaz...3021167916.html

An amazing documentary on Egypt's history, starting in the early 20th century leading up to today. Explains a lot of why and how the current situation came to exist.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mog2Xeu0-c

There is going to be some world power, which would you rather? US democracy, or maybe Chinese censorship? Maybe even a woldwide caliphate of Shariah law? Which government will you choose?

Quoting myself in the last post I had:

. I'm all for a certain American presence around the world myself as it is in my and the western worlds best interest 95% of the time. BUT you have to be clear that there is corruption and self-interests involved in pretty much any sort of global politics, and there is no such thing as free lunch.

And I don't think people automatically choose one of the other options when they say that the "US imperialism" is bad. We scold those that we love, we try to improve upon our flawed existence whenever we can. When no improvement happens, we get what we see in Egypt now.

I'll leave it at that. Love the report on Egypt's last century, really summed things up nicely. I personally believe that we should support the people of Egypt out of principle. As one person said in that video; "Why are you not comparing us to Sweden? why are you not comparing us to Greece? are we not worthy of the same rights?" Yes, yes they are

Edited by duke_Qa, 29 January 2011 - 10:39 PM.

I've split off the US stuff into another topic. Maybe you'll have to re-post the first part of your last post in that topic though as I wasn't able to split single posts.

good good, I'll look into it.

Anyway, the sixth day of demonstrations continue, Quicklink

Basically, people have organized neighborhood watches to keep looters and others with ignoble intentions out of their homes. I would not be surprised if many of these looters are loyalists doing their best to give the demonstrations a bad reputation. The army passively cooperates with these civillian watchmen while staying on guard around valuable buildings. Police is nowhere to be seen except around the interior ministry, which is becoming a sort of last bastion of the regime's power. Less activity this night because of the watchmen keeping people from moving around too much, but daytime activity is probably going to increase.

Al-Jazeera in arabic has been shut down, English version is still on. Some moderate cellphone and internet access is slowly coming back.

13 people have supposedly been shot by snipers in the freedom square in Cairo during the night(prolly picking off the leaders/organizers I bet), and the death-toll is now around at least a hundred.

Things seem to be moving along anyway, people are not going to bleed and be content with what little they've gotten of compromise yet.

Hooray for Egypt! Get some serious change. Don't back down until you've got as much as you can out of the people who led you into open rioting and sowed the seeds of revolution.

By the way, has anyone else noticed that most of the coverage seems to be from British newspapers? We've had one Al-Jazeera link, I think, but the rest are all BBC, The Times, The Guardian etc. I guess American news sources just don't care about what happens in the parts of the world they're not invading.

I get news updates all the time about this.
I typically have the radio playing for background noise, and I hear updates all the time from CNN radio.

Nah, Vort, we're just so shortsighted that we can't see anything past the end of our government's collective noses

Edited by mike_, 31 January 2011 - 05:51 AM.

Hehehe, the google ads have good offers on trips to Egypt right now, that and news that the 9mm won't save you and self-defense masters and the army don't want you to know why

Things are moving in a slow iffy direction in my opinion. There are still tons of protesters around, and more and more are getting around the internet block and are starting to gain access to social networks. But it seems that the government have somehow managed to make people worry about the safety a bit too much, so I hope tomorrows "march of millions" will push this in the right direction again.

Right now I personally believe the US, Saudi-Arabia and others who are skeptical for a full-on revolution are bribing the Hell out of Mubarak and the Egyptian elite to try and stay and keep things under control. The military are keeping themselves neutral but would be hard pressed to do anything if they were forced to use violence against the demonstrators.

The police is apparently on their way back onto the streets, rumors has it that they are supposed to be non-confrontational and protect less political targets like banks and the likes, which makes sense but might provoke anyway. El-Baradei has been promoted by the Muslim brotherhood and others as the main diplomat to discuss with the government, and Mubarak has apparently promised to start talks with the opposition, so things seem to be moving along. If they get a meeting tonight it the opposition will have good hand with the promise of the "march of millions" tomorrow if compromises are not found.

Edit: NyTimes got an article about Egypt's influences on 9/11 and how it might have been avoided had the regime fallen earlier.

Edit2: BBC: The Waiting Game pretty much sums up my worries for what might happen. Shops are closed and people are starting to feel the shortcomings of vital supplies. This would be a logical train of thought from the regime, play the waiting game until the non-protesters start demanding a return to peace for food and security. It is also pretty apparent that Mubarak is not going to run off any time soon with the current situation. It is rumored that his wife(isn't it always the wife?) and close political partners are more dedicated to keeping up the charade. Luckily it seems that the demonstrators are cranking up the pressure and are calling for a general strike, which can be a good way to keep things tough for the regime. Hopefully tomorrow will bring people out in even bigger forces and we'll see what happens then.

Edit3: Another article on the way the regime is trying to choke people into submission. small quote:

The popular committees formed to maintain peace and security arrested some of these thugs and discovered that they carried police identity cards. Many of them were what is called "secret police". So this was the regime's infernal security apparatus let loose on the people of Egypt.

Edited by duke_Qa, 31 January 2011 - 12:53 PM.
more news

http://www.foxnews.c...wont-seek-term/

Not a bad read on the current yemen situation.

You know, this whole domino-effect thing has received surprisingly little coverage in the British press. It's focused solely on Egypt up to now.

And I will also be honest: I've not been remotely trying to follow it in the news.
Why?
Because it doesn't really matter.
It will accomplish nothing. Nobody's got the rocks for a really good revolution or coup d'etat anymore. Protests don't accomplish anything and haven't done since probably the 80s. I would have thought the student riots in London a month ago would've been testament to that. Hell, our government's even thinking about taking away the right to strike. Though I do love the presumptuousness and blatant pursuit of agenda that is Cameron, who urges a "rapid and credible" transition to democracy for Egypt to start now.. What business is it of his? What will he gain from it? Egypt have long been in the pocket of the West (after Egypt got itself dicked by Israel...), which assumes its way is the right way all the time. I'm not saying that I don't hope Egypt gets its government sorted out. I'm saying that if it could stand to look after its own principles rather than those of the West it would stand itself in better stead.

Well Egpyt is a sort of east-Germany, being one of the most populous and powerful arab nations. If the Egyptian regime falls, everyone else is going to follow. We hear a bit about Jordan, Yemen and the other countries, but they have not built up enough momentum yet to do big things. Fortunately, I believe the situation is now so upside down that whatever happens, something is going to change for the better.

I was quite skeptical yesterday when I heard that pro-Mubarak demonstrators were attacking the tahir square. Charging in with horses and camels, like some medieval siege. Not surprisingly some of the identification papers on these loyalists show that they are plainclothes policemen, and many are said to be hooligans paid to fight, the same kind of people that made trouble during the November elections around polls with anti-Mubarak majorities.
My main worry was for a moment that this was it, that now there would be a civil war which could quickly escalate to a war all over the Arab nations against their leaders. It might have been more likely that the chaos would have been forcefully suppressed by military forces by then, but it is a worst-case scenario.

This night 5 people have apparently been killed by loyalist gunfire, 3-4 were killed in street battles yesterday, 600-900 injured, not too sure about the numbers, but considering the amount of people in Egypt you could say things are still under control.

Personally I hope the last 24 hours of fighting gets the anti-government demonstrators fuming, and inspires them to start walking on governmental buildings again. That state TV channel would be of great help, and taking over the presidential palace would have been a crippling blow to the regime. The question is if the military would intervene in both of these cases.

And I will also be honest: I've not been remotely trying to follow it in the news.
Why?
Because it doesn't really matter.

It matters more to them than to us. Hopefully they will regain momentum and realize that the regime is happy having them sitting around like they are now. It is possible in this day and age to change a system that is obviously flawed, but you need to bleed for it.

Not a bad read on the current yemen situation.

That summed it up quite nicely yes. I love how it says that Yemen is one of the poorest Arab nations, and will probably run out of oil within 10 years. These Arab elites have run off with their nation's natural treasures while keeping the dissenters down, History will not be kind to them.

Edited by duke_Qa, 03 February 2011 - 08:25 AM.

Egpyt is a sort of east-Germany

Only if Iran falls as well. Which I doubt.

Iran is nothing like the Arab nations of the middle east. If anything the Persians are like Catholics(Shia) where the Arabs are like Protestants(Sunni), and then add the rascism and superiority complexes towards inferior people like the Arabs, and you will see that Iran does not matter for Arabs. Very few other nations have such an overt theocracy, and the combination of a autocratic regime with the infallibleness of religious dogma makes for a completely different system to rebel against.

The 2009 uprising was a few years too early, and the Iranian regime had "God" on their side, which allows them to be much more cruel towards the heretic. It is more likely that Iran will have to keep their mouths shut again now if this popular wave gains more momentum. If anything, Iran is going to be the last to fall, just because they have that fanatic tenaciousness combined with corruption and fascist policy between corporations and the state. the leading regime of Iran is so entangled in society, half will never rebel because they are so economically entangled with the government and the government's puppets.

No, once Egypt falls, the others will start falling too. The biggest problem will probably be Saudia Arabia, the biggest bigot of the Arab nations but also the richest. They are no doubt one of the major players in the shadow-war of global politics that is raging like a storm behind closed doors right now:
The US and the West are working their angle, the Arab autocrats are desperately trying find a way out of this quicksand-trap, the Iranians are quietly funding religious groupings to attempt to hijack the revolts in a fundamentalist direction, China will do their best to keep things from falling more because it would give inspiration for their own people... This is one of the points of time where pretty much anything can happen, and they only come around like once every ten years, so its quite interesting.

Edited by duke_Qa, 03 February 2011 - 10:37 AM.

Honestly guys,The guys that attacked the Tahrir square weren't police in civil,loyalists or anything like that,they were the normal people,they got sick from the protesters that say the population want Mubarak to leave,while they are a minority,even they were 1 or 2 million,they do not represent 80 million.

The people attacked them because the president did almost everything they want,and the protesters still want more,thats not how things should be,they can't have everything they want,and because of them the country has been in chaos for a week,no work,no sleep,and soon no food,and thats a pain just because 1 million want to force him to leave,while the majority don't want to.

You may say this is "the price of freedom" but if the Islamists take control,then say bye to freedom,we already had alot of Freedom,more Freedom than any arab country,ok,not a complete one like in The west,but if their wasn't any freedom they wouldn't be able to protest every week like they used to.

And honestly ELbaradei don't know anything about egypt,he should stay were he used to live.

And Mubarak is leaving in September anyways,He is to alot of people a hero,he was on of the generals in 1973 war against Israel,which we won,and in the same time he has kept peace in the country for 30 years,if it weren't for him,we would have been in a (civil)war,so alot of people say let him leave peacefully.

Also alot of Foreigners seem to be in tahrir giving money and food to the protesters(aka bribing),so they are some foreign countries who want it to burn(Usa,Iran,Israel,Qatar,etc....),even if they are Friendly countries,they want it to burn,and they should just shut up and take care of their own things.
And they are reports that Hezbulla are playing aswell,so if it seems the Islamists want it to burn more,because if everything got back to normal,the Islamists will be wiped out(and honestly they deserve to be wiped out).

You may say that i don't know what Freedom is and things like that,but before you say that,i am a European citizen,and i know how it is like,but to be honest,even in the west protesters don't take everything they want,do they?that if they can take anything,and at least the protests in the west are somehow peacefull,and not like the protests here.

The people are now fighting in tahrir,and the army don't want to do anything,and honestly this isn't how it should be,the army should just force them to go(both the anti and pro Mubarak),because it is just wrong that people are fighting because of different opinions.

Hopefully this will end soon.

Edited by Thats me!, 03 February 2011 - 11:01 AM.

This is beyond western interests, this is a political uprising that wouldn't have happened if there wasn't injustice. To say things are better when people get kidnapped, tortured and oppressed to vote for the ones in charge, you have to say "Oh well, it's better than what the nazis did to the jews! This is better than fighting the battle of Stalingrad. Be quiet you, live on your knees and don't die on your feet! there's some fine mud down here too..."

Also, people fearing the fundamentalist uprising: That is a self-fulfilling prophecy, as islamists feed off the anger caused by autocratic regimes, they use it in their whispers for the alluring Islamic world state, one which promises to be filled with joy(less focus is put on the suppression of democracy, women rights and the archaic law-system). In truth, once you get more freedom and a better life, such tales lose their calling.

This revolt is primarily a secular and youth controlled revolt, and I would be surprised if the military would allow the secular part of the political Egypt to fall. I would rather this revolt succeed than the fundamentalist one that would follow in a decade or two.


Anyway, The US is changing it's political stance and the Egypt government, which I personally feel has been very quiet when it comes to talking, suddenly feels the urge to start criticizing the interlopers.

Edited by duke_Qa, 03 February 2011 - 12:01 PM.

The people attacked them because the president did almost everything they want,and the protesters still want more,thats not how things should be,they can't have everything they want,and because of them the country has been in chaos for a week,no work,no sleep,and soon no food,and thats a pain just because 1 million want to force him to leave,while the majority don't want to.

Is not the government supposed to represent the people and what the people want?

You may say this is "the price of freedom" but if the Islamists take control,then say bye to freedom,we already had alot of Freedom,more Freedom than any arab country,ok,not a complete one like in The west,but if their wasn't any freedom they wouldn't be able to protest every week like they used to.

I don't think the government wants them to protest... The right to protest and assembly is one of the many hallmarks of a free country. Anti-government protests, however, are rarely ever met with much gratitude or appreciation from the government.

He is to alot of people a hero,he was on of the generals in 1973 war against Israel,which we won

I assume you are from Israel by the"which we won comment", I always wondered how some of the people of Israel are feeling about the local "events."