7 replies to this topic

[duke_Qa]

I think this was worthy of a GNP post, as this is one of the first signs of a potentially big geopolitical disaster that may be as big as WW2.

 

Yeah, WW2 proportions, it's pretty nasty.

 

The IMF predicts that Saudi-Arabia is going to go bankrupt by 2020. Primarily because of two things: Low oil prices and a lack of political willpower to change their system. "the IMF predicts the kingdom will suffer a negative 21.6 percent “General Government Overall Fiscal Balance” in 2015 and a 19.4 percent negative balance in 2016." That's pretty drastic. I guess most of the money in SA is in private bank accounts, but that won't be worth much if the government collapses. Well, beyond buying airplane tickets to Europe or some generic tax haven. Can't imagine any nation would be too thrilled about picking up 25 million spoiled Saudis though.

 

There's 30 million citizens in SA, about five actually have a job. three of those work in the "government." The rest are usually living off money handed out by the government, have never cared enough to get an education and are overall spoiled. I'd love to see how they'd react once there's no money to give them their basic supplies. 

 

So, SA looks by these predictions to be entering "a bad time," a bit like Yemen, to be honest. So let's go back to the GNP perspective on things: What does this mean for the rest of the world?

 

Firstly, we in the west are "allies" of SA. I'm suspecting that Obama's agreements with Iran is a diplomatically sound realignment to this. If we can be on good terms with Iran, we can avoid a east-west conflagration between Shias and Sunnis directly supported by Iran. Still, if SA falls, many nations will fall with them. Iraq, Yemen, Qatar, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, etc. Most of these nations are dependent on a strong SA (third largest military budget in the world today,) so if they fall, we'll have a political vacuum that certain forces will be eager to fill.

 

So, I haven't really considered too many scenarios of what can happen if SA falls, but I'm pretty sure it'll be a tragedy for the Arab world. I'm guessing Europe will feel the pressure of refugees like we do today, but even stronger. I don't think Europe is going to be very positive to a wave of refugees where 85% has been living a life of carelessness for 40 years and don't know what work is.

 

 

I guess this is also a fine example of how nations and borders keep wealth and power in various groups hands. We might be positive to people, as long as they don't strain our regional systems that we call nations so we lose access to the things we paid taxes to build. The world is becoming more and more borderless, but it is when the crisis come that we get put in positions of discomfort.

 

 

 

[Pasidon]

Quick... we have 14 days without any conspiracy theories to discuss this.

 

SA is ridiculous.  They build these multi-trillion dollar tourist traps, and I can't imagine where they get the money for those alone.  I mean... Dubai... come on.  That place must be draining them dry.  They've been building it for years, and it just isn't making enough money yet, since the residential section isn't even finished.  I find it fun that The Unit, a game that came out two years ago, predicted SA going bankrupt and turning into a warzone.  That might not be far off.

[OmegaBolt]

Firstly, we in the west are "allies" of SA. I'm suspecting that Obama's agreements with Iran is a diplomatically sound realignment to this. If we can be on good terms with Iran, we can avoid a east-west conflagration between Shias and Sunnis directly supported by Iran. Still, if SA falls, many nations will fall with them. Iraq, Yemen, Qatar, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, etc. Most of these nations are dependent on a strong SA (third largest military budget in the world today,) so if they fall, we'll have a political vacuum that certain forces will be eager to fill.

 

Why would the others fall?

 

Iraq & Syria are not friends of or relying on SA. Iraq is now requesting Russian aid to fight ISIS, which the US has challenged by saying that if this happens the US will stop helping Iraq altogether... well if Iraq does go with Russia, then they'll be completely on the "other side". Not to mention they have been working with Iran since the beginning to fight ISIS too, they don't rely on SA for aid at all. Syria is already in indirect conflict with Saudi Arabia, as they believe SA has been aiding the Syrian rebels, which includes ISIS.

 

Libya is already a failed state, they can't get any worse and are incapable of doing anything outside of their own borders. Whoever "they" is right now.

 

The invasion of Yemen would also stop, which would be good for them... the new Yemeni government would be able to, hopefully, deal with ISIS there too and would likely be aided by Iran and others if right now that wouldn't mean war with the Saudis.

 

Not to mention plenty of terrorism would stop altogether, and in fact it would allow for a true end to the whole thing further down the line... without the SA seed, terrorist groups could actually be mopped up by well intended forces and wouldn't have an infinite supply of money, weapons and ideological investment.

[duke_Qa]

 

Firstly, we in the west are "allies" of SA. I'm suspecting that Obama's agreements with Iran is a diplomatically sound realignment to this. If we can be on good terms with Iran, we can avoid a east-west conflagration between Shias and Sunnis directly supported by Iran. Still, if SA falls, many nations will fall with them. Iraq, Yemen, Qatar, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, etc. Most of these nations are dependent on a strong SA (third largest military budget in the world today,) so if they fall, we'll have a political vacuum that certain forces will be eager to fill.

 

Why would the others fall?

 

Iraq & Syria are not friends of or relying on SA. Iraq is now requesting Russian aid to fight ISIS, which the US has challenged by saying that if this happens the US will stop helping Iraq altogether... well if Iraq does go with Russia, then they'll be completely on the "other side". Not to mention they have been working with Iran since the beginning to fight ISIS too, they don't rely on SA for aid at all. Syria is already in indirect conflict with Saudi Arabia, as they believe SA has been aiding the Syrian rebels, which includes ISIS.

 

Libya is already a failed state, they can't get any worse and are incapable of doing anything outside of their own borders. Whoever "they" is right now.

 

The invasion of Yemen would also stop, which would be good for them... the new Yemeni government would be able to, hopefully, deal with ISIS there too and would likely be aided by Iran and others if right now that wouldn't mean war with the Saudis.

 

Not to mention plenty of terrorism would stop altogether, and in fact it would allow for a true end to the whole thing further down the line... without the SA seed, terrorist groups could actually be mopped up by well intended forces and wouldn't have an infinite supply of money, weapons and ideological investment.

 

 

 

Eh, I'll admit, I'm mostly handwaving those "facts." My argument is that a lot of the Sunni nations are getting a lot of SA's money and support to maintain their regimes, as long as they stay within the SA's regime rules of what to do and not to do. I'd say SA is currently a bit like a miniature America in the Arab world; they have money, they have a big army, and they use those to spread their gospel and maintain their interests in their neighboring countries.

 

I also guess by fall, I might be considering a lot of things. big wars changes borders, after all. Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey have a lot of ethnic groups that never have fitted into the national borders they've drawn. The Kurds being the primary group, Sunni's and shiites after that.

 

Though as you say, SA isn't a good friend of Syria and Iraq, so I'd guess most of their troubles would come from the sudden introvertedness that losing a common enemy might force on them.

 

Yemen is basically in a Mad Max situation already; they've sucked the country dry from all valuables and the people remaining there have practically nothing but the sea left to them. The problem is, SA is going to end up in the same situation pretty quickly.

 

But yeah, some terrorism will stop. The wahabbism fanatics, ISIL and the likes will suddenly find themselves without money. Hopefully it'll happen before they find a nuke somewhere, but who knows.

[OmegaBolt]

I think borders will likely be redrawn anyway after ISIS is dealt with. Syria's not going to be the same country coming out of this, as even if ISIS is pushed back Assad still needs to work with the rebels and Kurds to win. Iraq too is probably going to have a hard time convincing everyone to agree to a national unity that was only really held together by Hussein's dictatorship. Maybe defeating ISIS would inspire national unity, but I imagine for those living outside Iraq's governance during this period, they'd rather have independence.

 

I'm talking like I know what I'm talking about but this is just from what I gather in news and articles. It doesn't seem to me like Saudi Arabia has many friends at all in the middle-east.

 

The WW2 (or WW3) scenario IMO would come from Israel. They're the ones with the nukes, the true western support, and they deliberately align themselves against the rest of the region. And they're always on the warpath. I think it was only a few days ago they requested the US for equipment to raid and sabotage an Iranian nuclear facility... even after the agreement and the massive amounts of control over their nuclear capabilities, they just won't stop.

[duke_Qa]

Israel is probably going to be a part of this game once bombs start flying. They'd probably chase the remaining Palestinians out into Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq and SA. Which probably will cause those nations to try and counter somehow, but I suspect that would just be used as an excuse by the Israelis to bomb the Palestinians even more.

 

Money doesn't buy you good friends, but it does buy you friends if you help them build up their militaries. Though, it does seem that SA doesn't have too many close friends. If anything, I'd guess UAE and Quatar along with Jordan are the closest ones. The others they've seem to have spurned now and then through the times.

 

Still, when you look at the situation in neighboring countries that are taking in refugees from Syria (of which SA is not one ironically and certainly a good argument to ask ourselves what their motives are,) we could expect a situation akin to that, if not worse if the military of SA splinters into subgroups fighting for control over land, which still will have some oil to it. Then we'll also see all of these holy warriors come flowing into the country. Considering that Osama originally came from SA, it isn't unlikely that there will be some fundamentalists over there that would love having a scrap at home.

[OmegaBolt]

It looks like the Saudi family are currently planning a coup to remove their king, which could save the country from collapse or cause the reverse, however it doesn't look like the current king has many supporters at all so there might not be any resistance.

 

http://www.theguardi...hip-king-salman

 

There are some more recent articles on it but can't find them again...

 

There's also this funny little incident: https://www.rt.com/news/319727-saudi-prince-drug-arrest/ Seems the Saudi's are a lot like the CIA.

[duke_Qa]

Hmm, so there is a chance every claimant to the throne will do battle for it. A Game of Thrones, so to speak. Heh, at least they have enough courage to start panicking at the news.

 

your link didn't work(double space at the end): https://www.rt.com/n...ce-drug-arrest/