15 replies to this topic

[Cossack]

I was watching Glen Beck the other night (yes, he is a conservative :s, but i still love his show ) and he was talking about how the Saudis are likely dropping the oil prices to cause domestic instability within Iran and topple Ahmadinejad's extremist government. When you think about it, it kind of makes sense.

It costs Iran about 5 times as much to produce their oil, and they have a much higher demand for it. Lower oil prices will hurt Iran much more than Saudi Arabia, and Iran already has high inflation and a high unemployment rate.

I think the Saudi's who are predominantly Sunni's want to hinder Iran's shiite influence, which has increased due to Iran's military expansion and nuclear ambitions, in the middle east. Iran is already the second largest oil producer in OPEC, and I think the Saudi's are catching on to the fact that if they dont stop Iran, Iran may continue with their nuclear ambitions and become the dominant force in the middle east, threatening Saudi Arabia's position of wealth and power.

The only way to do this is to cause economic instability within Iran, by lowering oil prices, and force the people of Iran to question their governments competence.

[duke_Qa]

its true that its a sunni vs shia system in the middle east, with Iran as the shia-lord and Saudia Arabia as the sunni-lord. there seems to be a constant powerstruggle between these two, with the situation in Iraq as the climax of the powerstruggle.

i dunno if making oil-prizes lower will instantly overthrow Irans government. they'll still be able to sell oil, and oil-production in Iran is not optimal compared to the reservoirs they have. the ultimate pumpout trick then would be to start getting Iraqi oil onto the marked thus creating more supply and less demand, something which i believe has not happened yet.

dunno where i read it but after the invasion of Irak, alot of oil-companies indirectly got control over the oil-production. but they're not producing more oil, they are actively limiting the oil-production to keep a high prize so that they make more money themselves.


the only place in the middle east that we see a good example of toppling a government by getting rid of the money is in Palestine, where after they democratically elected Hamas which was unpopular in western eyes, got their moneyflow from many benefactors and even their own tax-money stopped. no wonder that we have something that is pretty close to a civil war down there now.

this will not work on Iran i believe, they have too much land and too little western influence to be felled by the same trick.

[narboza22]

hehe, Saudi Arabia is such a great ally for the US. They can lower oil prices which makes the US happy and at the same time serve their own purposes. They've got a good set up going for them

While it won't topple the Iranian government, it certainly won't help them.

[Cossack]

I agree that lower oil prices alone wont topple Ahmadinegad's goverment, but his public approval is already slipping, and the Iranian economy isn't doing that great. I think falling oil prices is simply one factor in what will eventually be the fall of Iran's extremism.

I think the only thing Mahmoud is holding on to is his nuclear program, and despite American and western fear-mongering, I think Iran is still VERY far away from developping nuclear weapons.

P.S. I like you siggy narboza

Edited by Cossack, 07 February 2007 - 01:37 AM.

[Comrade Kal]

And the Saudi government is so much better than the Iranian one!

[chemical ali]

And the Saudi government is so much better than the Iranian one!

Yes but for the sake of diplomacy, we have to like them more.

[duke_Qa]

at least the saudi's are a bit more peacefully oriented towards us than the Iranians. even though they still have plenty of fundamental medieval rules around, its easier to have a positive influence on them when they are friendly than when they barely let you step inside your borders.

[narboza22]

P.S. I like you siggy narboza

Thank you

[MSpencer]

The Saudis don't talk about committing genocide in excited terms as often as the Iranians do. For that reason alone, the Saudis are infinitely better.
Even if the people in charge are a bunch of close-minded dictators who enforce the laws of the dark ages, they still don't convene summits about how everyone in Israel should be killed...

[Comrade Kal]

Oh of course, but that's really the only difference. It's just how people imagine one as some sort of arabian nights fantasy where everything's great and one as nazi germany with burkhas.

[duke_Qa]

so if you know the middle east inside out why won't you enlighten us to how it really works

[MSpencer]

Iran really is no different from Nazi Germany with Burkhas. Saudi Arabia is more like... Romania, a mostly harmless dictatorship.

[duke_Qa]

well i stil believe that there are alot of liberal and westernized people living in Iran. ruled over by a bunch of fundamentalists that got their way to power because of western powerplay gone awry. naturally a majority of the population has faith in the government and in religion, but i dunno if its much worse than in any other arab country.

[Comrade Kal]

Iran really is no different from Nazi Germany with Burkhas. Saudi Arabia is more like... Romania, a mostly harmless dictatorship.

Hmm. Perhaps. But the Saudis still lob people's heads off for adultery and stuff, don't they? And lock up gays?

[duke_Qa]

nothing extraordinary compared to alot of other countries we try to keep peace with i bet.

[Copaman]

(Off topic a bit for now) I love to watch Glen Beck! Sure he's a conservative, but his story is so inpiring.

(Not off topic anymores...)

I think the Oil move is a joint-operation between the US and the Saudis. We want cheaper oil (we could be spending the savings on alternative energy sources in the meantime) and the Iranians to not be so... well... extreme in western minds. We want to seperate them from the enriched uranium like parents wanna seperate a baby from a burning fire in his bedroom. At the same time, the Saudis want to A) become the VERY dominant force in OPEC (that might hurt us in the long run...) and B) take out the Shiite in Iran. So, they get what they want prolly and we get what we want immediately and hopefully in the future.