45 replies to this topic

[duke_Qa]

Israel blocks journalists from Gaza to win PR war

Analysis: The options left for Israel in Gaza

Interesting how quick things derail once a ceasefire is not prolonged. I wonder why the Israeli didn't go further to actually try to maintain it, but i guess for them it was more a question of weighing the pros and cons.
Pros of ceasefire: less dead people(some general in a dark corner of a meeting room coughs dryly to cover a involuntary snicker. Except for that, apathic silence)
Cons of ceasefire: Hamas looks like something that works and gets their hands on more weaponry(many officers mutters sceptically)

Pros of ending ceasefire: kill off a few of the Hamas leaders we know of, blow up a few of their armories, show them who's boss, give nationalistic Israeli citizens a reminder of who's "protecting" them before the election, get a "win" after the horrible war in Libanon
Cons of ending ceasefire: Homemade rockets will land near Israelis("Most Israeli have bunkers, so who cares" says some admiral. "The pacifists that are too slow to get into bunker is none of our concern... And if they die we call them heroes and retribute, win-win"), middle-eastern and arab countries/people will hate Israel more("Big deal" Says some general. "It's not like we are going to put on the straw that breaks the camel's back this time, either."), Western countries and nations will be annoyed that they get blamed for supporting Israel by doing nothing("this is a good thing" says some spindoctor. "no western nation dare to do anything but push paper at us when we do these things. And in the eyes of our hostile neighbours, we have trustworthy allies that are just waiting for an excuse to attack any enemy of Israel. And so their anger is focused as much on them as on us, and once someone attacks a western nation, they are even more bloodthirsty than we are. It's a perfect downward spiral to sustain our way of existence". many officers sigh in awe)


All in all, I'm getting tired of these situations. the more shit Israel manages to do without any major western powers doing something against it, makes us bigger targets for counter-attacks. I really hope Obama dares to say something against Israel once he comes to power. Though I have my doubts.


I could say something about Hamas being a pain in the ass and at fault. But I find it hard to believe that 310 palestinians vs 4 Israeli deaths can be blamed on Hamas beyond being what the people voted for. (Besides, if i covered all my bases there would be no argument )

[Hostile]

Honestly, Hamas dissolved the cease fire than proceeded to fire alot of rockets. Than one wonders why Israel would respond?

Than when they respond they get condemned. That's the reason for the Hamas ending the ceasefire. So the PR war continues.

Hamas is a puppet government propped up by other powers. They do not care about casualties on either side. They care about an agenda.

They need conflict in order to be relevant...

[Romanul]

TBH the best way to solve this conflict is to give the region back to the UK or to the UN.

Or,create an technocratic state(which would include both Jordan and Israel) for like 20 or 50 years,and then give it back its total independence.

Much much easier,no wars,maybe some interior conflicts,but if UN troops are sent in a pretty big number(like Iraq) it could be a nice solution.

Edited by Romanul, 31 December 2008 - 12:04 PM.

[duke_Qa]

The biggest help would most likely be to have open borders again. Before the Hamas deal began, 400-450 trucks with goods came into the Gaza strip every day. Once Hamas got into power, it was reduced to 200-230. and before this conflict and since the summer, the average number of trucks with supplies into Gaza was around 15. Because some days the borders are open, some days its not.

There is a chance that some of these trucks contains weapons for Hamas, but I somehow find it unlikely that the Israeli would allow these trucks to go into Gaza without being checked thoroughly first. If they can spend that much money on military equipment they can spend some money on having a proper system to check out the trucks that goes into it. And 99.9% of the goods that goes in would be used to bring a better quality of life for the average Palestinian, which would mean less angry Palestinians for Hamas and other powers to recruit.

speaking of the rockets fired after the ceasefire, i think the number before the ceasefire was 2-4 rockets per day, and afterwards if was 5-10. To me that sounds like some frustrated punks that found some of Hamas rockets and fired it off in spite rather because they were ordered to. its hard to keep dicipline on such a ragtag group of angry people. Also, the major difference between the ceasefire and post-ceasefire is not very big, so i dunno if Israel's response was "proportionate". but i get the military idea that if you first are going to strike, strike hard. So Israel probably did attack the best way they could, since just taking out a few missile guys in one spot is just gonna piss the rest more off.

Edited by duke_Qa, 31 December 2008 - 12:40 PM.

[Phil]

Honestly, Hamas dissolved the cease fire than proceeded to fire alot of rockets. Than one wonders why Israel would respond?

Than when they respond they get condemned. That's the reason for the Hamas ending the ceasefire. So the PR war continues.

Hamas is a puppet government propped up by other powers. They do not care about casualties on either side. They care about an agenda.

They need conflict in order to be relevant...

The point is that it's really not a one-sided thing. The hardliners in both camps want and need the conflict in order to protect their power, while the people on both sides pay the price for it.
The PR war is, of course, fought on both sides as well, with Israel blocking access of journalists to Gaza in order to limit the footage of the suffering population there, as written in duke's article. Hamas then makes use of exactly that footage to recruit more people to their cause.

[Puppeteer]

TBH the best way to solve this conflict is to give the region back to the UK or to the UN.

Or,create an technocratic state(which would include both Jordan and Israel) for like 20 or 50 years,and then give it back its total independence.

Much much easier,no wars,maybe some interior conflicts,but if UN troops are sent in a pretty big number(like Iraq) it could be a nice solution.

Can you explain what this is please? In context I thought it was another way of saying a "mandate" or something, but google appears otherwise. Thanks.

[Romanul]

I mean a state,which has an technocratical government,a elected prime-minister and president,and elected local mayors,councils and such.And basicly the state to NOT be Israel or Jordan,but to be something like...well,to be a region were both Jews and Muslims can live together.

Simple,no?

[Mastermind]

I think you mean democratic, not technocratic. A technocracy puts eggheads in charge, a democracy puts idiots elected representatives in charge.

[Puppeteer]

Yeah not technocratic then. That's why it was confusing. And why don't you put spaces after commas?

[duke_Qa]

well, Israel started on the ground assault last night. After what i've heard they have split Gaza in two, a northern and southern part. also, journalists are still not allowed into the area so the only information coming out is from the military. fun stuff.

All in all i dunno how this is going to turn out. some possibilities are that alot of civillians are going to get killed and the IDF occupies the center of Gaza, or some Israeli soldiers gets lost and captured(that would be a big loss for the IDF, so i doubt they will have troops outside vehicles at all)


I have to say that Israel is a barbaric nation when they have to sacrifice hundreds of human lives for every election they have. I really hope some western nations grows some balls and dares to actually walk the walk and not just talk the talk after this.

[Phil]

The only western nation with balls would be the US, but it's obvious that they are not going to do anything serious about it with so many jews in their own top circles. They are the only nation with enough power to back up their demands anyway.
Let's be honest: the situation is fucked up and nobody's going to do anything about it. Israel is once again just adding fuel to the fire, destroying all possibilities for peace in the region in the next decade.

[duke_Qa]

Yeah, but if Obama dared to say something to Israel, it would be one of the first steps to actually change something down there. naturally he would piss off alot of people doing so, but it would be for the greater good. if he just said that he would listen more to the UN when it comes to the Israeli/Palestine situation it would have been earth-shattering.

[mike_]

It really wouldn't surprise me if he did speak out against it, as he (presumably, knowingly) pissed off a lot of people by choosing to run in the first place.

[Tom]

How long before nukes start falling on israel?

[Hostile]

well, Israel started on the ground assault last night. After what i've heard they have split Gaza in two, a northern and southern part. also, journalists are still not allowed into the area so the only information coming out is from the military. fun stuff.

All in all i dunno how this is going to turn out. some possibilities are that alot of civillians are going to get killed and the IDF occupies the center of Gaza, or some Israeli soldiers gets lost and captured(that would be a big loss for the IDF, so i doubt they will have troops outside vehicles at all)


I have to say that Israel is a barbaric nation when they have to sacrifice hundreds of human lives for every election they have. I really hope some western nations grows some balls and dares to actually walk the walk and not just talk the talk after this.

Seems you have failed to know that Hamas ended the cease fire and they've been shooting rockets into Israel on and off for 6 months, even during the cease-fire. Israel didn't attack Gaza, they responded to Hamas attacks. And what would you have done?

http://www.cnn.com/2...kets/index.html

updated 4:12 p.m. EST, Wed December 24, 2008

http://news.egypt.co...nto-israel.html

even the UN know why Israel responded.
http://www.un.org/ap...s...aza&Cr1=ban

I can't find anything older than dec 24th because there is so much current stuff. Hamas attacks Israel and we wonder why Israel is responding. Who fired first?

http://www.nytimes.c...st/30hamas.html

The questions remain: Why did Hamas end its six-month cease-fire on Dec. 19? Will it — can it — unleash suicide bombers into Israel in retaliation? And will the devastation in Gaza make Palestinians fall into line behind Hamas, as they reliably have in the past, or will Hamas lose their support as Gazans count the escalating cost in blood and destruction?

Even knowing that retaliation was certain, Hamas seemed to end the cease-fire in part because of its longstanding discipline and consistency. For years it has preached to Palestinians the rejectionist credo that Fatah negotiated with Israel and got nowhere; Hamas’s way of armed force, it argued year in and year out, was the only way.

Some of the uninformed crap that people here spew makes my head spin in disbelief sometimes. What would the US/Russia/China do if a nation ended a cease fire on it's own and decided to start launching 60+ rockets per day into the areas of US presence?

They would retaliate with over whelming fire power.

[duke_Qa]

One of Hamas main reasons to stop the ceasefire was the lack of supplies allowed into Gaza.

And compared to our military standards, Hamas is a gang of barbarians with a lackluster chain of command. When Hamas says they will keep a ceasefire it means that those that are able to contain themselves stop shooting rockets. The ones who are too emotional and anarchistic will get their hands on a missile here and there and fire it off(i still recommend the tv-series Jericho, where you get to see eye for an eye and human base emotions in a post nuclear-terrorism America). As far as I'm concerned that was the stance of Israel as well up until the ceasefire ended.

All in all the Israeli did not try to prolong the ceasefire by for example, letting more food and aid into the Gaza strip. And once they allowed the ceasefire to end, you can't claim that the military activities we see now are improvised. They've infiltrated and scouted the Hamas targets with people on the ground long before the end of the ceasefire, they've planned the bombings and the attack-lines we are seeing now way ahead of the end of the ceasefire. They've even managed to make sure no journalists were in Gaza at the time the bombing started, and have made doubly sure that none gets in afterwards. I dunno how long a journalist can stay in Gaza, but i bet they can stay in there for weeks if they first get in there.


I'm not too pissed about Israel actually shooting back when Hamas fires rockets into Israel. I'm pissed that Israel have played/puppeteered this long before the ceasefire ended, in such a way that was 98% certain of causing a major military operation. It's not about whats happening on the ground right now, that is merely the tsunami hitting land. The waves are created far from sight and in a deep cold darkness.

Its the same that Russia did with Georgia this summer. They played a game of interests and provoked a situation that was positive for them. Modern warfare is not about declaring war and sending a bunch of soldiers to your enemies lands. its about making your enemy step in the salad and open himself for rebuttal.


The result of this warfare is this: Israelis get to vote for those they feel made the most out of this conflict(its a bit like the gladiator games of Rome: Bread and Circus, the politician with the best show is allowed to be Caesar, throw in some slaves for the lions and let some gladiators fight), and Palestinian children gets an excuse to put on vests of dynamite

[Phil]

One of Hamas main reasons to stop the ceasefire was the lack of supplies allowed into Gaza.

You mean that's the reason they always find people to do it. The plan is obviously to impress their people (i.e. "we're actually doing something against Israel!") and to provoke Israel to respond with more counter-violence so as to find even more supporters in the end.

I pretty much agree with you on the rest. Neither side is actually interested in peace. It's a simple rule that has always worked. To keep control on the inside, take it out on the others. Add to that the real religious zealots plus a lot of manipulable people on both sides and you get a truly explosive mix. Most of the time, if you find the ones that profit from a conflict, you've also found the source.

On the topic of justification: Israel, just like any "modern western nation", needs to justify the wars it begins. It has been part of the whole war-media strategy for a long, long time. Just take a look at the immense propaganda effort the US made about Iraq having weapons of mass destruction just to gain a pretext of starting the invasion. It's always the same story.

The result of this warfare is this: Israelis get to vote for those they feel made the most out of this conflict and Palestinian children gets an excuse to put on vests of dynamite

Totally.

[Tom]

I'm sure in many cases hostile it isn't Hamas, but some pissed off citizens. Israel has been doing this shit for years. Its not interested in defending itself, it just wants to be dominant in the region. They keep doing shit like this, they will end up as dust eventually.

[duke_Qa]

If Hamas felt they could get something back for not shooting at Israel beyond fresh recruits, I bet they would have tried it out. Right now though, they found that the value of the ceasefire was not being appreciated by Israel. So they figured that they could make more recruits and followers with a few months of conflict.

Both sides have advantages of this war. The only losers are civillians that get caught in the crossfire.

[CIL]

I don't think a cease fire is a good solution, and I'll state why here. The buffoons in Gaza are the same imbiciles who democratically voted Hamas in as their government in a fair election. It doesn't matter if a couple hundred of them are blown up. They already hate Israel to death (mostly). Secondly, it would let Hamas restock its rockets, which it would, in turn, use against Israel. The Israelis would be stupid to accept a cease fire. I say stay the course. Unlike al-Qaeda, these guys can be killed. After they're all lying dead in parts, maybe things will turn around in Gaza. I would LOVE to see a new Palestinian state in Gaza headed by a non-terrorist group, but only if it accepts Israel's legitimate existance as it's own state. If they cannot agree that Israel should remain existing as-is (just without the rockets), they will likely turn into something like Hamas. Anyways, I think Israel should liberate Lebanon from Hezbollah (funny how they were voted in, too). Like Hamas, they hide behind civillians, as un-innocent as the majority of them are.

And making Jordan and Israel the same state would NEVER work. In fact, it'd probably be worse. The Muslims would outnumber Jews and vote some terrorist group in. It would end in mass Genocide. Also, Israel rightfully belongs to the Jews, and you would know this if you looked several thousand years back in history. It has been nabbed from them too many times. It should not happen again.

Edited by King Telemnar, 07 January 2009 - 05:44 AM.