204 replies to this topic

[Námo]

Egyptian referendum on changes to constitution: Muslim Brotherhood wins out big as YES to Sharia Law is approved:

Sandmonkey, one of the Jan25-movements important bloggers, has this analysis:

Dear Jan25 people,

So today the results of the referendum came out, and as expected the YES vote won. In case you didn’t expect it, well, there were 4 reasons why that happened:

1) How many Egyptians joined the protests at their peak? The day Mubarak left Office, it was estimated 10-20 million in the streets. What’s 20 million out of 85 million again? 25%? That means there are 65 million who never joined the protests from the beginning, and who probably miss the stability and security of the old regime. 75% that is used to say YES and there is no proof that they changed their mentality or behavior. Never-mind those amongst you who also voted yes for their reasons. I am personally surprised it wasn’t lower.

2) Cairo is not Egypt. This may seem obvious to others, but let me repeat that point again: CAIRO IS NOT EGYPT. Stop your Cairo-is-the-center-of-the-universe chauvinism. 25 million live in Cairo, 60 million live elsewhere. And, let’s be honest, the NO vote people did not manage to get their message across to the people effectively. There was no real TV campaign, no real grassroots campaign and no actual debate. Some individual efforts here and there, but no real coordination. This has to change.

3) The Military & the MB & the Salafis & the NDP were pushing for a YES vote. The Military, as always, just wanted to get out of this mess as quickly as possible, and the YES vote meant just that for them without having to face any real headaches. The rest knew that a YES vote gives them the best chances to win the Parliament and thus re-write the new constitution, and they had the money and the organization and tools to push for it. You didn’t.

4) You no longer represent the people. You really don’t, at least when it comes to their concerns. Your concerns and their concerns are not the same anymore. You care about the revolution, & the arrest of NDP figures & getting the country on the right track. They care about economic security, the return of stability and normalcy the fastest way possible. They only have the military now as the organized force running the country & providing some security, and you are pointing out-correctly, mind you - that the military is detaining your friends and colleagues and torturing them and violating their rights to protests, and you want them to stand up against the military, the only force in the country in their perspective that is keeping Egypt from descending into total chaos. Yeah, that will win them over.

... ...

Well, at the moment the prospects don't look very bright for a transition to secular democracy, but the Jan25 movement aren't giving up ...

Read it all at Rantings of a Sandmonkey

Edited by Námo, 23 March 2011 - 08:13 AM.

[duke_Qa]

It will take them 10-20 years to get anywhere. As long as fear is not allowed to return to a position of power, change will slowly come. if you have freedom to discuss politics with no risk of "disappearing", there is no way things can't change.

[duke_Qa]

One of the main red lines in the Arab spring has to be the amount of corruption that these nations have put up with until now. Here is a fine article about all the grey-zone business deals that western corps have had experience with since economic sanctions against Libya was eased back in 2008.

If there is a colony power here, it has to be the Gaddafi family. The sad thing is that many democracies around the world works like this as well, especially in former Soviet-block nations. hopefully this spring will inspire other non-Arabic nations to have a deeper look into their nations corrupt rulers as well.

Edit: Norwegian government refused our military to fly missions before we had confirmation of who was in command of the operation, but now they've been placed under command of a US admiral, and the first mission just took off from Crete a few minutes ago. Which is sort of interesting since it still seems NATO and the gang are arguing about who is in command, but I suspect the Norwegian government was content with flying under American command for now. After all, all our jet-pilots are US trained and use the same tactics, which makes it a lot easier for them to do missions under US command.

Edited by duke_Qa, 24 March 2011 - 12:30 PM.

[duke_Qa]

Figured I'd update a few things now. Jemens president has "promised" to step down within 30 days for immunity for him and his closest, and there has been some rumors that Farouk Abdullak(Which we Norwegians got written in our book of grudges for protecting his murdering son), might take over.

Secondly, as people probably know, the battle for Libya continues, it seemed on saturday that the g-man's forced retreated in some ploy by g-man to get the local tribes with a history against Misurata to do stuff, but they started bombing again quite quickly so that must have failed. Also, his compound in Tripoli just got bombed again for some reason.

More interestingly is Syria, which last week removed their martial law, but at the same time removed all rights to demonstrate. Not that that law was the primary reason the people were suppressed. Anyway, today it seems that the Syrian government have taken a step towards civil war, putting 3000 soldiers and tanks into Dara today, allegedly killing hundreds with grenades and snipers.


Hrm, there's 22 million people in Syria, about equal to Iraq, and somewhat related to it. I heavily suspect that we won't see any military intervention here, and I suspect Syria's leaders know it. At least they can't expect us in the west and NATO to take care of both this and Libya at the same time, although I guess it could in theory be done if they finished off Gaddafi quickly.

Edited by duke_Qa, 25 April 2011 - 10:18 AM.

[Romanul]

Don't always take only the population. There's a big difference between Syrian population and Iraqi one.

In Syria the literacy rate is 90.8% iirc.
In Iraq it is near 78%, which is a wooping difference.

Syria has chances of becoming a decent democratic state, style to the Eastern Europe states.
Iraq will still be a third world country, sadly.

[duke_Qa]

A chance or not, they have a much bigger army and a much longer history of loyalty to the Assad family than your average Arab nation, and that will probably cost tens of thousands of lives before we get to see any significant changes.

[duke_Qa]

Been a few weeks since we've made some updates here now. I guess nothing and everything has happened in this time.

Jemen is pretty much on the verge of collapse into civil war as their president travels to SA for medical aid after being hit by a rocket attack. It is rumored he had 7cm shrapnel in his chest and 40% burns over his body, so if that is true it will take more than a week to see him return. The question is if he will return or not. The main reason Saleh refused to step down was because he wanted to bring along some old political rivals. Sounds logical enough if those rivals are of the same ilk as him, but there are probably other reasons as well.

What I primarily wanted to update on though is Syria. This article explains the blessings of modern technology, because if this was the 80s, Syria would have long ago sent in the army to stop whatever feeble attempt at revolt the people were trying to complete. Alas, since it will be practically impossible for them to hide such atrocities from the public more than a few hours, it will be challenging for them to do so. And I'm pretty sure that if Syria starts killing civillians in the thousands, we will hopefully see an intervention go through the UN council pretty fast, even though it is a much bigger country than Libya.

Also, the real bad-guy left in this situation is Saudia Arabia, the poisonous friend of the west that does it best to keep the charade going. It is a shame that we are not seeing more reforms happening over there, and I hope that they get whats coming for them in my lifetime.

Edited by duke_Qa, 09 June 2011 - 09:11 AM.

[Námo]

*bump* ... So, what became of the 'Arab Spring', now half a year later? People still gathering at the Tahrir Square?

------------

Some recent news from the Tahrir Square. Not unexpected, but really sad: the islamist have hijacked the revolution, and those wanting a secular society are pulling out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4C27dXqE-I

[Radspakr Wolfbane]

It was bound to happen. :(
Which at this rate will probably mean they'll be in the same situation again down the track.

The guy saying "we are Osama bin Ladin" worried me a bit,I wonder how much of the crowd have the same view?
Notice the Vampire halfway?

[Námo]

Notice the Vampire halfway?

That was the least scary part.

[duke_Qa]

You can't hide your trolls from the sun forever. That they are being openly fought against is better than pretending they don't exist.

[duke_Qa]

Figured I'd do a quick update on the spring, now that Tripoli practically has fallen.

He has ruled Libya for 42 years, but Muammar Ghadaffi's defiant regime was on Sunday entering its final hours as rebel fighters entered the capital, Tripoli.

In another day of dramatic advances, opposition fighters pushed forward from the western town of Zawiya along the coastal highway to Tripoli. From the frontline in the village of Maya, the chimneys of Tripoli's power station could be seen shimmering in the distance. The regime's last moments were being played out in a green landscape of orange groves, olive trees and seaside restaurants.

I have to say, if things cool down now, you could say this has been a quite effective operation. I think I said that I expected the civil war to be over within 7-8 months after it started, so it seems my guesstimations were overly pessimistic. Then again, you might say this will not end in a hundred years, because there will probably be conflict there for at least 10-20 years.

Edited by duke_Qa, 22 August 2011 - 06:56 AM.

[Madin]

Excellent! The Al Qaeda spring have won an important victory.

Now they can sort out the 140+ tons of gold and divide up the oil concessions between the NATO countries.

I wonder how much Libya will be billed for this 'peace' action?

Edited by Madin, 23 August 2011 - 03:21 AM.

[Pasidon]

Good news or future bad news I suppose...

[Námo]

The Dictator has fallen! Long live [fill in the blank]?

Yet another Socialist Paradise going down the drain of history ... enter 'The Islamic republic of Libya' ??

[Madin]

The UN resolution for Libya runs out on the 2nd of September, hence why there has been a rush to get this thing sorted.

A bloody civil conflict or an ethnic cleansing is all but guaranteed unless a heavy UN presence remains. Has is always the case with the dumb-ass western media, the tribal element is being largely ignored.

[duke_Qa]

I find it very difficult to see these revolutions falling straight back into the same mire that they were stuck in. Libya hasn't been "socialistic" since the early 90s, where they did like Russia and went for oligarchy and started stealing more than they deserved. This article was quite good on the topic

Naturally, the situation is still not clear. It seems that the rebels have over-estimated their hold on Tripoli, but they have without a doubt progressed forward nonetheless. The Kaddafis still have soldiers and money to do almost as they please, driving around Tripoli like some mad-max raider gang. But that won't last forever. Within the week I'm guessing enough rebels have entered Tripoli to hamper their movements. Sirte seems to be under siege, as reinforcing soldiers were stopped by rebels on the road to Tripoli. Morale must be abysmal right now for the loyalists as well, so they are probably fighting more for survival than anything else. Give them the chance to surrender with guarantees for their lives and I'm sure most will take that option.

[Námo]

... Libya hasn't been "socialistic" since the early 90s, where they did like Russia and went for oligarchy and started stealing more than they deserved ...

Which has been the destiny of all the worlds true socialist experiments. All of them. Totalitarian rule is an integral part of Marxist ideology.

[Madin]

When it comes to war reporting, CNN, BBC & SKY\FOX tend to be 'patriotic'.
In other words their information is filtered, in the case of the UK, via the MOD.

They repeatedly get caught blindly reporting MOD propaganda (not the pleasant truths propaganda, the outright lies stuff) which I guess makes sense, but I take all their reports with a pinch of salt has the saying goes.

Think of this what you will.

Edited by Madin, 23 August 2011 - 09:48 AM.

[duke_Qa]

All western media information is filtered, we all live in a big bubble where there are certain rules that run the show. Doesn't mean that all the information is wrong and malicious though.
And our access to information is a miracle compared to your average authoritarian nation. We just need to dig a bit if we want to find truly interesting information, and then we have access to it. In other nations, you'd get a bullet in the head for just asking where to find that information.
Many of us have no clue whatsoever how much our freedom of information is really worth. I think we Norwegians(/Scandinavians) have gained a bit of understanding in that since the massacre. The right to peace and knowledge is special, but we forget its value when its ever-present and without consequences.

Anyway, The fact of the matter is, Tripoli is filling up with rebels from outside, the locals are 75% anti-Gaddafi, the loyal remnants of the army are fighting an uphill battle that probably won't last out the week. There might be terrible slaughters in traps and sieges, but I think most of those on the ground in Libya are expecting as much.

Namo: this article was quite good on the future of the economy, quoting Marx claim that globalism=fall of capitalism.

Now, bar the shouting, it's over. Last week the Wall Street consultant Nouriel Roubini, one of the few who predicted the financial crash, spelt out the fix we're in. Governments cannot afford to bail out the banks again. Quantitative easing can no longer help, nor can currency depreciation. Italy and Spain will be forced, in effect, to default, and Germany won't pay out any more. The successful capitalist reached this striking conclusion: "Karl Marx, it seems, was partly right in arguing that globalisation, financial intermediation run amok, and redistribution of income and wealth from labour to capital could lead capitalism to self-destruct."

Edited by duke_Qa, 23 August 2011 - 11:22 AM.