204 replies to this topic

[duke_Qa]

So, quite a bit has happened since last post, to sum it up, Mubarak held a speech yesterday that most believed was his resignation, but it was just another puff of air. People came out in hordes for today, and now Suleiman has announced that Mubarak have resigned.

[Romanul]

Well, the show is over folks, you can go home now!


____________



Egypt will most probably go to a Eastern Europe country 90's crisis. I somehow hope that the EU could allow it to enter...

[duke_Qa]

I think Turkey would feel very insulted if they were not to be invited in first. And then Israel would have something to say about it as well. Also, I dunno how the world would look upon it if EU started taking in African countries, would almost be imperialistic beyond what it already is.

Although I can imagine that America and EU will engage in some sub-EU cooperation with Egypt, a mild version of what we got up in Norway/Iceland.

In 10-20 years when they've had a few elections, people might give them more access to European nations.

Edit: EU on turkey:

The earliest date that Turkey could enter the EU is 2013, the date when the next financial perspectives (the EU's six year budgetary perspectives) will come into force. Ankara is currently aiming to comply with EU law by this date, but Brussels has refused to back 2013 as a deadline. In 2006 European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said that the accession process will take at least until 2021.

So these kind of law-changes takes time. Letting Turkey in right now would be pretty damn hard because the democratic system is still not 100% stable.

Edited by duke_Qa, 11 February 2011 - 09:30 PM.

[duke_Qa]

Since this is the arabic winter revolution, we will add a bit of news about Bahrain, a small nation of 1mill with a US naval base on it. There has been events for over a week, one man dies, a few thousand meets up in his funeral, and then someone in the wake gets shot, causing a new funeral the next day with even more attenders. You have to give it to the muslims that the short time for a burial and the worshipping of martyrs gives them a cultural advantage in keeping the circle going: kill one, he becomes a martyr, big funeral the next day, someone else gets killed because of the funeral, and hey presto.

Anyway, the Bahrain government have done quite a few things since demonstrators begun popping up. They cleansed out the pearl square(the local liberation square proxy) early in the morning around the middle of this week, causing injuries and possibly death to a few, they've started choking off the main city with checkpoints and all that jazz...

And now it seems helicopters are indiscriminately firing into the friday demonstrators, which is a bit of a dramatic turn of events to say the least. It is a gamble, either people will stop being peaceful and start fighting back, or they'll suppress the demonstrators...for now.

[Romanul]

I think Turkey would feel very insulted if they were not to be invited in first.

Meh, Turkey was always EU's bitch. They had increase of their GDP of 12% last year IIRC. And they killed themselves to enter the EU since the 80's.

And the reason I think EU does not want Turkey in the EU is because of very obvious "ZOMG ISLAMIST ALERT!" reasons. We don't have smart people in the Parliament IMO.

[Vortigern]

What surprises me most about this is that the domino effect has finally come into its own. Four countries now, in a definite easterly direction, rebelling one after another. Maybe the dominos will take a loop and come back for the countries they missed and, this time next year, the middle east will be entirely unrecognisable.

[duke_Qa]

I think I mentioned this back in the thread for the attempted 2009 green revolution in Iran; that the best thing we can do to get rid of these dictatorships is to make censorship hard, get easy-to-use communication channels and let people figure out the truth on their own.

In the future this will also affect western corruption, which is much more subtle. We will probably not see overthrown western governments, but the easier it gets for people to blow whistles on bad behavior, the harder it will become for corps and govs to get those extra pennies. after that, the legion will probably be the ultimate judge in what big power can do or not, although that legion can be fooled by professional spin-doctors and viral ads.

Edit: more stuff about Bahrain

The early evening clashes brought a dramatic end to a day that had started off with three large funeral rallies through the suburbs of Manama. More than 50,000 demonstrators attended – between 5% and 10% of the tiny kingdom's population.They were among the biggest public rallies the Arab world's smallest state has ever seen. At the largest of them, in the suburb of Sitra, around 25,000 mourners marched in a long looping column to a graveyard, demanding that the regime be changed.

"No to Sunni; no to Shia," they cried at one point. "We are all Bahraini."

Mahmoud Muhim, the father of one of the dead protesters, took the microphone during the march and said: "Not one person has offered me commiserations. Everyone has said congratulations, because I now have a martyred son. He died for Bahrain."

Well damn, the numbers alone didn't sound impressive, but the percentages are a bit more honorable. 5-10% of the population out in the streets risking their lives? not much you can do about that unless 51% of the remaining population are soldiers.




Also, there seems to be rumors that Libya is looking unstable, Gadaffi's sons have supposedly fled the nation and the borders against Egypt have apparently been taken over by demonstrators. Some local radio in the capital have also been taken over by the demonstrators and was spreading their viewpoints over the air...quite fascinating.

Edited by duke_Qa, 18 February 2011 - 11:16 PM.

[Ash]

Well it all seems to be getting a bit tasty, doesn't it? A whole string of countries throughout the Middle East and North Africa, all basically protesting about the same thing and having more or less the same things done to the protesters.

That the Egyptian premier abdicated doesn't really seem to have changed a thing. "Ah, yes, this is a victory for the people! Mubarak has turned power over to the military junta...what could possibly go wrong?" As opposed to calling an immediate free and fair election, he basically declares martial law. Which is a fair old step away from free and fair elections.

Still, shall we get a sweepstake going for which countries the rebellions fail in? I mean, they failed utterly in Iran a couple of years ago. I can see Libya's and Algeria's contributions failing. On the other hand I expect Bahrain's king to form something of a constitutional monarchy. There's really no going back when you get your soldiers to start shooting protesters, not for a king anyway. A military junta (like Libya's) might get away with it though.

[duke_Qa]

Yes, and I don't think doing that to a muslim population is the best way to go if they've lost their fear. In most scenarios it will escalate, and at best cause major damage to the economy, at worst cause civil war.

Egypt's military don't really have a chance at keeping things the way they were. Communication has both reduced the chances for big wars and brought light upon the intolerable corruption these regimes have been running on for the last half-century. We'll see big demonstrations every friday at Tahrir square for quite some time.
That the military declares martial law is not a big step for the worse in Egypt, they've been under it for 30 years. And arranging a proper election that people will accept is not something you do in a post-dictator nation overnight. We in the west can barely do it in 3 months. They need at the minimum 6-8 months if not 1-2 years.


Also, Egypts military was on the side of the population and with the US funding them with hi-tech weaponry and the likes, they had to keep things smooth. Iran is the antithesis of Egypt in this situation. The military is closely intertwined with the theocracy both politically and economically, and they got the Bashir militia as the para-military force that can do pretty much whatever they want, oh and they too have big fingers in the economic pie of Iran. Iran is the second worst nation to fight a rebellion in because the government is fascist, religiously fanatic and corrupt beyond comparison.

So if i had to put money on some of these uprisings, I'd say that all of them will eventually succeed. But it would be in a timeframe of decades, and it would be with the loss of millions of lives.
If i have to bet on which will do it with minimum bloodshed... Algerie perhaps, Bahrain might make it, Yemen too.
What I would find more interesting would be to see if Saudi-Arabia, the biggest bigot of the Arab nations down there, gets what it deserves. I believe that if SA falls, all of our worries for Muslim fanaticism would fall with it.

[mike_]

Resolution in sight?

[duke_Qa]

At least the people got back the pearl square, which is a moral victory of sorts. The governments don't really have big cards to play beyond trying to outlive the demonstrations, so I don't pay much heed to such discussions. They have so far not been successful in other revolting nations.

[mike_]

Additionally...

[duke_Qa]

Yes that is more interesting again. China is going to have to compromise in the future as more and more chinese learn how to set up secure proxy connections abroad. If you combine this with the meeting Obama had with the Silicon valley leaders like Zuckerberg and Google's executive, I think we will see more and more communication technology that will be easy to use and hard to block.

[duke_Qa]

Not posting anything on whats going on for the last 24 hours? One might think you are apathetic bastards through and through, with no eye for history in the making.

Oh well, Libya is the word and blood is the ink it is written with. The eastern parts have fallen and some parts of the military there have joined forces with the demonstrators. The Arab league diplomat and the UN diplomat for Libya have turned sides and are demanding Gadhafi's resignation. Not that they seem to be very interested in it at the moment, as things seem to be escalating like hell.

Rumors have it that 200-500 have been killed so far today, shot by people in cars with tinted glass, African mercenaries hired in to kill random demonstrators, military, or helicopter gunships and fighter jets. Two fighter-jet pilots landed on Malta and deserted when they were ordered to bomb civillians.


It is a problematic situation because both sides have everything to lose if they give in. The military that have stayed loyal to Gadhafi and have killed demonstrators will probably get killed if the demonstrators win; the demonstrators can't give in because then they will get executed by the regime.
I suspect this might be the first revolt that needs external military intervention to stop the fighting, if Gadhafi does not give up soon.

[Vortigern]

You know, it turns out there is an upside to all this killing and unrest: The Bahrain Grand Prix is cancelled! It's a rubbish track, especially to have as the season opener. Last year there were a grand total of five overtaking manoeuvres all race, three of which were by the same guy. It was the most interminably, unrelentingly boring spectacle of the pinnacle of human engineering I have ever seen. And now we won't have to sit through that pile of bollocks again.

Go democracy!

[mike_]

That's a horrible situation, duke. Hopefully someone will step in to stop the violence (preferably on the demonstraters' side!) before more innocents are killed. Unfortunately I can't think of anyone who would do such a thing... except for Egypt!

EDIT: While that would seem to be a wrong move on their part, considering Egypt's newfound stability, I think that it would be very beneficial to them if they were to do make that action. It would show the rest of th Middle-East - and the world - that they are not to be trifled with, and even possibly give them an image as the protectors of peace and democracy in the region. Then again, that's probably just wishful thinking on my part.

Edited by mike_, 22 February 2011 - 03:10 PM.

[Thats me!]

Back in Europe(yaaaaaay),time to talk again...

anyway this Gaddafi guy is -in my opinion- really crazy and ill,to use the the army to kill the own people,just not right.
he must step down,because if it stays like this, a civil war may happen soon

external military intervention can be good but bad too

I think that it would be very beneficial to them if they were to do make that action

yeah but

i still think Egypt is still unstable to do that,however their are 1.5 millions Egyptians in Libya,which can make the army think about it,but i think its highly unlikely.
......While life is now almost normal in Egypt,the soldiers are needed to keep it so,or chaos may happen again.
maybe an international mixed force?however they have to protect the people,and to not make anymore damage.

Edit:
While i was reading the news right now,their are (unconfirmed) reports that Cairo have warned Libya that Egypt may use the the army to protect the Egyptian citizens that live in Libya
well it seems something might happen.....
...................................................................................

Btw,2 pages ago i was defending Mubarak,but if he rally have $70mrd.(wich i don't believe),i might(or actually will) take 75% of what i said back.His assets have been frozen,lets see what will happen.

while all this revolutions happen,i really fear the Islamists as i said before,they may sound nice and "liberal"now,but that is a step-in my opinion again-to come to power through legal ways.especially since they are the strongest,most organized movement in Egypt.

Edited by Thats me!, 22 February 2011 - 08:20 PM.

[mike_]

...except that the Egyptian protesters repeatedly asserted their claims that the Muslim Brotherhood organization has been and will continue to take a supportive role, not a leadership one. They've been routinely acquiescing to the revolutionary's demands rather than swaying them to their own agendas. I don't think that there's anything to fear from them, certainly not as much to fear from, say, an actual terrorist group such as al-Qaeda (and even they aren't worth much notice TBH).

[duke_Qa]

As long as the demonstrators in Egypt take heed of the post-revolution events in Iran; where the religious fundamentalists started to slowly take control. And once they've thoroughly cleansed the system for the old, they went over and took care of the new opposition as well.

Gadhafi is a ticking bomb, and I suspect that if we see much more violence from the army against civillians, someone are going to intervene. Hopefully the army will crumble before that time and stop this madness before it gets too radical. 6million people and a military force of 110k, plus militias and mercs at 40-80k. Hi-tech anti-air seems to be what they've spent most money on, so I guess they've had some insight into what would be the most angle of attack on them.

News has it that a British warship is closing in on Libyan territories in case British citizens need support, but I haven't found any links on english news-sites of it. Hopefully when I wake up in the morning Gadhafi's been killed by his own men.

[Copaman]

At this point, someone needs to send a team in *cough cough SEALs cough cough* and kill Gaddhafi. The rebels aren't going to be able to get near the capital because Gaddhafi pulled all his loyalists back to his compound.

The fighting won't cease until someone grows balls and ends it.