204 replies to this topic

[duke_Qa]

He is in an impossible situation. If he sends his troops out of Tripoli in an attempt to retake the other cities, the western world won't accept it and there will probably be a military intervention. If he stays put, more will join the demonstrators. As far as I've heard as of now, more cities are falling out of his control, and more of the authorities are abandoning ship.

One might even say that the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt have shown the people in these regimes that it is wise to bail quickly, which again causes these regimes to crumble even quicker.


Right now though, I'm worrying that these revolts might cause a second dip in the economic crisis because of the oil prices. It is almost scary to see how dependent we are on these regimes in maintaining our fickle societies. Alternative options for Arab oil can't come around soon enough.

Edited by duke_Qa, 24 February 2011 - 12:01 PM.

[mike_]

I agree with you. Speaking as an American, we should really get back into our offshore drilling operations. I've heard rumors that we have enough untapped oil off of our coasts, in Alaska and throughout the West to last us alone for 400 years - long after oil should be an obsolete fuel source. I'm not sure of the facts, but IIRC the North Sea and other regions also boast large reserves of crude oil that would be readily acceptable if we tried to get it.

[duke_Qa]

I dunno about 400 years, that seems a bit excessive. I'm not too happy about the "peak oil" prophecies, but it seems very likely that with the speed we are using oil these days, 50 years is about how long we got left. Combine it with the fact that reserves in SA seems to have been excaggerated(big surprise that a corrupt medieval nation with one of the biggest power sources in the world, would lie about how valuable it really is), and becomes clear it would be about high time to start looking more into alternative fuels.

Hopefully the next 10 years will be a great time of reform, where the opaque and corrupt get their asses handed to them, and we can start focusing less on over-the-top consumerism and more on long-term survivability and boring but practical technology.

[mike_]

I sure hope so - something's gotta give.

[Vortigern]

How about we get on to practical alternative fuel sources? Like the hydrogen fuel cell, for one. Honda have got the price of a hydrogen-powered car down to about $120k, from the original point of over $1 million three years ago, which is a hell of an achievement. Why nobody else has started looking into this I simply cannot understand. With proper funding and understanding, hydrogen cars could be ready for worldwide use in 10 years, and then fuck the oil nations.

[Puppeteer]

How about we get on to practical alternative fuel sources? Like the hydrogen fuel cell, for one. Honda have got the price of a hydrogen-powered car down to about $120k, from the original point of over $1 million three years ago, which is a hell of an achievement. Why nobody else has started looking into this I simply cannot understand. With proper funding and understanding, hydrogen cars could be ready for worldwide use in 10 years, and then fuck the oil nations.

Because those with the money and expertise to develop the alternative fuel supplies - oil/coal/natural gas companies - have no incentive to do so. As the stocks of fossil fuels decrease, the price goes up, but as long as they can keep on refining old stocks and perfecting fuel extraction, they can make a profit. For the time being, they have a monopoly on industrial energy supplies. Any developments they make into alternative fuels are token efforts.

[Ash]

You know, it turns out there is an upside to all this killing and unrest: The Bahrain Grand Prix is cancelled! It's a rubbish track, especially to have as the season opener. Last year there were a grand total of five overtaking manoeuvres all race, three of which were by the same guy. It was the most interminably, unrelentingly boring spectacle of the pinnacle of human engineering I have ever seen. And now we won't have to sit through that pile of bollocks again.

Go democracy!

My mum was actually upset about this as it meant she'd have to wait another two weeks before the season kicked off. Personally, I share your sentiments (or more than a dabble of apathy...last season was pretty boring as a whole anyway). They could at least have moved the whole calendar forward a fortnight and hope to have time to organise a race somewhere else (maybe, um, the Nurburgring) later on in the season.

As for the topic itself...Libya's basically gone into civil war. Which is kinda cool considering on one side you've got the common populace, on the other side you've got Bono. Which puts your average westerner in a bit of a dilemma...

[duke_Qa]

Because those with the money and expertise to develop the alternative fuel supplies - oil/coal/natural gas companies - have no incentive to do so. As the stocks of fossil fuels decrease, the price goes up, but as long as they can keep on refining old stocks and perfecting fuel extraction, they can make a profit. For the time being, they have a monopoly on industrial energy supplies. Any developments they make into alternative fuels are token efforts.

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity

Oil "aristocracies" have been around for over a century now. I'd wager quite a few of the big names in Oil are third or fourth generation Oil princes. And, I fear, upper class twits the lot.
More Business experience in keeping the status quo flowing and no interest in risk-taking or innovation.

They might clap their hands together when they see the oil-prices rise like they are doing now, but I think they will be sitting on nothing but paper wealth within our lifetimes. Those that will rise are those that take risks and develop new technologies, like Hydrogen fuel cells and fusion

Edited by duke_Qa, 24 February 2011 - 05:57 PM.

[Vortigern]

My mum was actually upset about this as it meant she'd have to wait another two weeks before the season kicked off. Personally, I share your sentiments (or more than a dabble of apathy...last season was pretty boring as a whole anyway). They could at least have moved the whole calendar forward a fortnight and hope to have time to organise a race somewhere else (maybe, um, the Nurburgring) later on in the season.

Yeah, I was annoyed about having to wait longer, but I got over that pretty quickly. I've waited all winter, I can hang on for another couple of weeks. And last season wasn't boring. It started badly (in Bahrain) and then got better, and was genuinely interesting at the end. Even Abu Dhabi was exciting because Alonso was stuck behind Petrov (which really goes to show how poor a track it is, that a brilliant driver in a top car couldn't get past the worst driver, by common consensus, in a much worse car - just cut out the whole middle east from the calendar, we can do better). But yeah, I'd like to see the Nurburgring back in. Maybe they should use the whole 13-mile circuit, just do about ten laps. It'd definitely be different.

@Duke: if all they have is theoretical wealth, then they'll be royally fucked when the industry comes crashing down the moment someone comes up with a practical alternative. Serves 'em right.

[duke_Qa]

I really am starting to get annoyed with all these paper pushers around the Example: They get "investments"(loans) of bullshit-cash from bullshit investors, then using that as a claim that they are worth 20 times more and then use that as credit for a 20x loan, which they then use to buy some stocks that are bound to increase with 3-5% within a few days...Which they then use to pay back the initial investment with, while having 95% left that they can spend on other things...whoosh. Free money. Until the economy goes haywire, Then the opposite becomes true.

We have to take some business advice from China: spend money on physical investments. Build industry parks that can make stuff, not just send all our hard-earned money into paying off mortgages on loans for idiotic things, giving the bankers more money to play bubble-bobble with. Claiming we are "developed nations" does not mean we should stop spending money on infrastructure and national development.

Anyway, seems that the oil and gold prices just dropped two dollars because of a rumor that Gaddafi's been shot. Fun system huh.

[Vortigern]

Jordan sees biggest reform rally. It really is contagious. That now gives us... Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, Iraq... Have I missed anyone out?

Oh, and it sounds like Gaddafi's been doing the shooting, not getting shot. At least five deaths have been reported so far from Tripoli, and plenty more injured. But on a lighter note, Canada sent a plane to bust out their citizens in Libya, only to later find that they didn't in fact have any, according to the BBC live text (see 2018). Go Canada!

Edit: Just saw the bit on the live text which ups the kill count to "about 60" (see 2250). Shit be getting serious, my friends.

[mike_]

Make of this what you will, but it sure seems to me as if we're looking at a possible Egyptian-led United Arabian Caliphate in the future if the dice fall in the right way. I think that that would be for the best, to be honest.

[Vortigern]

Add Oman to that previous list. Two dead there to bring the total just a little bit higher. Anyone got any idea what the overall number of people dead across the Middle East is? I mean, as a result of the revolutioning that's been afoot, not just old dudes who happened to drop over the past month.

[duke_Qa]

Yes, Oman is no different than the other nations around SA. Moderately rich but filled with educated and unemployed citizens which feel they are not being given their rights. We will probably see more action there as well.

Here I found a nice article about the decadence in Saudia Arabia's extended royal family. mostly from a cable from 1996, it tells of how remote family members use their privileges to sell visas to foreigners looking for work, repatriating land before the government is going to create something there, and taking up loans without paying them back. I'm so glad we are living in an age where communication outruns the oppressors.

[Ash]

Wow. Just wow.

Seriously, this latest funny by Gaddafi doesn't bear even a passing relationship to reality.

[Vortigern]

And Ahmadinejad has reacted badly. The two leaders of the opposition have been detained and there has been talk of them being executed. That's what you get for wanting change. I also read somewhere (can't find it now, alas) that Ahmadinejad has condemned Gaddafi for using violence against his own people. Surely the hypocrisy cannot go unnoticed.

In possibly related news, DR Congo has joined the list of countries where shit is hitting the fan with an attempted coup and at least six people dead. Of course, this may just be because that's how they roll in the Congo, but it may also be that they're feeling a little inspired by revolution fever.

[Romanul]

As for the topic itself...Libya's basically gone into civil war. Which is kinda cool considering on one side you've got the common populace, on the other side you've got Bono. Which puts your average westerner in a bit of a dilemma...

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

No shit!

What do you think, that Guaddafi STILL has the ability to stay in power? HAH!

As I said, and I'll mention it again, its just the world being split between superpowers, nothing new.

[mike_]

Your point?

[Mathijs]

His point being that nothing will really change.

[duke_Qa]

Personally I'd say this is more a ideology change than superpower change. Arabs have been under control by western supported dictators since the 50s. Today we are a bit more iffy about supporting these dictators, and communication possibilities have expanded rapidly, thus causing a situation where these autocratic regimes have very few chances of staying in power if they are dependent on the international market.