152 replies to this topic

[Námo]

Nigel Faraga nails it once again, the core of the crisis in Europa is really this: the politicians+bankers vs. the people.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5kz_tSVWZI

BTW: RT (Russia Today) usually has some honest and critical coverage of news, IMO better than European News agencies ... strange that we'll have to go outside Europe to get decent reporting on our own domestic policies.

[duke_Qa]

I do like that Nigel, he is refreshingly honest and straightforward. If we were in a less democratic spot he would have been arrested or killed ages ago.

Beyond that, last thing I really heard about Greece was some journalist talking about the severe mood-change down there since January, and that some of the prime-minister's co-party members resigned today to avoid a vote on some cuts.

[Námo]

Black Monday in Italy ... the third largest economy in the Euro-zone. Spain heading in the same direction, too. Both economies are Too Big To Fail Too Big To Bail(-out).

Those responsible at the top of the EUSSR are in panic, REAL PANIC.

The EUSSR hasn't been able to solve the problems of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, only to make matters worse ... and those are tiny economies compared to Spain and Italy:

The domino's are starting to fall. Fasten your seat-belts.

[duke_Qa]

I'm surprised Italy is still standing somehow after having Berlusconi around for so long. For me it is a prime example of a democratic and economic apathy put into system.

If Greece has to go through reforms then its only natural that the elephant in the room does the same.

[Ash]

What, the whole EU itself? That is the elephant in the room!

[Allathar]

Well, that was pretty much expected. I wonder, though, how long the politicans will attempt to do as if nothing's going wrong here.

Ah, well, I can't be arsed anymore to get pumped up about it. Just stand back and watch the unstoppable force (financial crises) hit the unmovable object (the EUSSR). I'll probably have to change my euros into a better currency before that happens, though. Switzerland has a pretty good valuta.

Edited by Allathar, 12 July 2011 - 02:17 PM.

[Romanul]

Switzerland has a pretty good valuta.

I would never ever make a credit in Swiss francs. You have to be insane.

At least here it went from 2.2 RONs for 100 Swiss francs in 2009 to 3.69 yesterday (historical maximum.)

I wouldn't do it. Nor the US dollar is enough stable.
Actually, there is no stable currency just like the euro.

Tho personally I'd prefer in German Marks. If they make a comeback, they will possibly be the nr.1 currency of Europe.


__________________


But honestly speaking, I doubt the euro will die. I give better chances of seeing Greece kicked out of the Eurozone.

Edited by Romanul, 13 July 2011 - 07:54 AM.

[Allathar]

Switzerland has a pretty good valuta.

I would never ever make a credit in Swiss francs. You have to be insane.

At least here it went from 2.2 RONs for 100 Swiss francs in 2009 to 3.69 yesterday (historical maximum.)

Ehm, that's a good thing, for the Swiss francs. You're confusing it the other way around

But honestly speaking, I doubt the euro will die. I give better chances of seeing Greece kicked out of the Eurozone.

Greece kicked out of the Eurozone is pretty much the beginning of the end for the euro. After Greece there will be Portugal, then Ireland, then Italy, then Spain...

[Ash]

We can only hope the currency's collapse brings the Eurocracy down with it.

[Allathar]

We can only hope the currency's collapse brings the Eurocracy down with it.

Don't get your hopes too high up. If anything, it'll lead to a totalitarian Euro-government, because after Greece we obviously can't trust countries with their own governments anymore, now can we?

[duke_Qa]

Hehe, as a non-member of the EU, I'm all for incompetent and corrupt governments getting tied up and taught a lesson .

I feel that a lot of people are blaming the EU for faults that are most likely made by their own governments. What does a dictator do when he is criticized? He puts the blame on a distant enemy and gets his people distracted.

“Propaganda is to a democracy what violence is to a dictatorship.”
You might claim that we are better at lying to ourselves than dictators are, which will just shut up and start killing people once they start asking tough questions.

Anyway, I think that the best thing to happen to the EU was that it became bigger/more powerful, because then they would be forced to make it more malleable/democratic. Right now its like some insane hybrid, where politically dead politicians gets better jobs out of the spotlight, with more power and influence than in their old positions AND very little trouble from their citizens.

[Námo]

... I'll probably have to change my euros into a better currency ... Switzerland has a pretty good valuta.

Buy gold ... it's going parabolic.

Switzerland has a pretty good valuta.

You have to be insane ... personally I'd prefer in German Marks.

Yeah, that would be a nice option.

I think that the best thing to happen to the EU was that it became bigger/more powerful ...

... maybe even more sexy than it is now?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSWPdpUpEYM

Clip from Van Rompuy's 2011 'State of the European Union' speech about two weeks ago (when everything was in turmoil in Greece) ... Sure, that low-grade bank clerc with charisma like a damp rag deserves his lavish salary, which is exceeding that of the President of the United States.

[Romanul]

Ehm, that's a good thing, for the Swiss francs. You're confusing it the other way around

Yes, it is good for the Swiss francs, but its shitty if you have a credit in Swiss francs.

[duke_Qa]

mm, sexy Europe.

Some Norwegian economists were worried that the NOK would be considered a safe harbor, causing a strengthening of it to such a point that our exports would become too expensive for our European customers, which would drag us down into the same mess as the rest of them.

Fortunately, the NOK is somewhat insolvent and hard to sell when you want to sell it, so its not the most attractive currency around.

It seems that Italy is less likely to make a big scene out of tightening the belt a few notches, one union leader interviewed in the news said that she suspected most Italians realized that there has to be reforms all around to get things working better.

[Námo]

It seems that Italy is less likely to make a big scene out of tightening the belt a few notches, one union leader interviewed in the news said that she suspected most Italians realized that there has to be reforms all around to get things working better.

The last week's financial attacks on Italy came as a surprise for almost everybody, as Spain was considered the next in line ... my bet is, that the coming week will be focused on Spain and all the as yet undiscovered debt that the regions holds; the Spanish regions are responsible for about two thirds of the total Spanish economy, and the rumors say there are some nasty surprises hidden there.

The ponzi scheme of the Eurocrats will not last much longer.

Another bet: Greece will default at the latest on August 20.

[Allathar]

If Spain collapses, Greece and Italy will follow, so my guess is that they're not attacking Spain until the very last. If anything, Portugal will be the target in the coming weeks, giving the Spanish government some more time for reforms.

[Romanul]

Wrong. It will give the Spanish government a kick in the balls, as they are neighbours. Really, economy does indeed depend on regions.

And it will not be Spain that will collapse, it will be Greece. And if Greece collapses, the Portugal might fall as well, since Moody's and other organisations moved it down to "junk" category.

Spain and Italy still have a chance IMO.

[Námo]

Just found a small caption that precisely catches the Eurocrats surgery on the Greek economy:

"Doctors, let's remove the wallet first."

[referring to the troika's demand for a fire-sale of Greek assets as a prerequisite for a new bail-out]


Small update:

According to various indications, the UK could be the next target for an unexpected raid by the financial markets, like the one on Italy last week; Even Germany should not feel too safe, the markets are really smelling blood these days. The German and UK's CDS have surged 50 percent the last two weeks.

The pressure on Spain is slowly mounting: Spain 10-Year Bond Yield Surges to Euro-Era Record 6.31 Percent (7 percent is considered the threshold for 'point of no return', where the debt starts to spiral out of control).

Source: various info from ZeroHedge 08/17/2011.

Edited by Námo, 19 July 2011 - 10:03 AM.

[Námo]

posted witout comments:

Greek Bonds Collapse As ECB's Nowotny Announces Bank Will Compromise, Agree To "Temporary" Greek Default

Wonder why the Greek 2 Year bond just plunged, sending its yield to a laughable all time high 39.09% (a 312 bps move today alone)? Wonder no more. According to the ECB's Ewald Novotny the central bank has folded to German demands, and will now allow a "temporary" Greek default. Of course, what happens next will be a complete freeze in capital markets ... but who cares: the central planners think they have it all under control.

From Bloomberg:

European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny suggested the bank may compromise and allow a temporary Greek default as officials scramble to fix a sovereign debt crisis that’s spreading to Italy and Spain before a leaders’ summit in two days.

As Spanish financing costs surged at a 4.45 billion euro ($6.31 billion) treasury bill auction today, policy makers are trying to ease a split that’s pushed interest rates on Spanish and Italian 10-year debt above 6 percent for the first time since the euro debuted 12 years ago. The ECB has until now argued that any Greek default could spark a new financial crisis, derailing a German push to make investors help foot the bill for a second bailout of the country.

“This has to be studied in a very serious way,” he told CNBC in an interview broadcast today. “There are some proposals that deal with a very short-lived selective default situation that will not have major negative consequences.”

Ironically, the ECB is correct about the consequences, which explains its unwillingness to push forward with this plan. However, Germany's realization that none of its banks are pregnant with Greek debt is what has allowed the follow through. The problem however, as everyone who dabbles in these things, is known as unintended consequences. And despite what you may have read in various books by assorted namedropping anchormen, the administration was 100% confident it could contain Lehman when it failed as well. Oh well, it was bound to happen sooner or later.

We still have a sinking feeling that a "temporary" Greek default may be announced as soon as 48 hours from now when the EU leader meeting concludes on Thursday.

[Romanul]

Also, I've read somewhere that politicians start to discuss freely about Greece's bankruptcy.

Heh. Shit happens. And we have a 170,000E credit..... and still have 110,000 to pay.

I really hope that the eurozone will still live.